Job Description:

- We are seeking an accomplished Senior Manager/Associate Director to lead and scale our Commodity Price Forecasting function.

- This leader will oversee a 12-15-member team responsible for developing price forecasts across multiple commodities, regions, and categories.

- The role demands strong forecasting expertise, deep commodity market insights, and proven leadership experience.

- This individual will own the endtoend forecasting program including methodology, governance, delivery cadence, stakeholder alignment, and team capability development.

Key Responsibilities:

Team Leadership:

- Lead and mentor a team of 12-15 analysts responsible for multiregion, multicategory price forecasting.

- Establish team structure, coverage allocation, and workload balancing across commodities and regions.

- Build team capabilities in forecasting techniques, commodity fundamentals, automation, stakeholder communication, and analytical insights.

- Drive a culture of ownership, collaboration, continuous learning, and high performance.

Governance & Delivery:

- Oversee the endtoend forecasting program including planning, prioritization, delivery governance, and quality assurance.

- Ensure the accuracy, timeliness, explainability, and reliability of all forecasting outputs.

- Implement rigorous quality standards including backtesting, error tracking (MAPE), and frequent model recalibration.

- Introduce and scale automation for data ingestion, validation, model refresh, and reporting to improve efficiency and reduce manual effort.

- Standardize data pipelines, templates, and reporting formats to efficiently manage forecasts across 500+commodity indices.

Commodity Forecasting Expertise:

- Develop and refine forecasting methodologies using timeseries models, econometrics, machine learning, driver models, and scenario frameworks.

- Ensure that all models are auditable, transparent, and supported by clear assumptions and confidence ranges.

- Provide deep subject matter expertise on commodity dynamics including supplydemand drivers, benchmarks, and market trends.

- Analyze market price and convert them into decision-ready insightssummarizing the observed change in prices, explaining the reasons behind it, highlighting its impact on the business, and presenting forward-looking scenarios.

Stakeholder Management:

- Serve as the primary liaison between client teams and internal Beroe teams for all commodity price forecasting requirements.

- Lead alignment discussions, governance forums, and conflictresolution meetings.

- Influence adoption of forecasting outputs and guide stakeholders toward datadriven decision-making.

Qualifications & Skills:

- Masters degree in Finance, Business Administration, Economics, Accounting, or related field.

- 12-15+ years of experience in commodity forecasting, pricing analytics, procurement analytics, or market intelligence.

- Demonstrated leadership experience managing teams of 10-15 members in a highintensity delivery environment.

- Proven ability to run a function endto-endstrategy, execution, stakeholder management, governance, and delivery assurance.

- Strong exposure to commodity markets across chemicals, polymers, energy, metals, agriculture, packaging, and industrial inputs.

Core Technical Skills:

- Forecasting: timeseries models, driver/regression models, econometric frameworks.

- Statistical: model validation, backtesting, error measurement, bias detection.

- Data proficiency: SQL, large structured datasets, data quality processes, automation frameworks.

- Fundamental analysis: Supply-demand analysis, impact of geopolitical tensions and conflicts, natural disasters, etc. on commodities.

Leadership & Behavioral Competencies:

- Take full accountability for priorities, anticipate risks proactively, and deliver consistently with minimal supervision.

- Effectively delegate, train team members, drive accountability, and resolve conflicts with sound judgment and professionalism.

- Articulate insights in a concise, structured, and outcomefocused manner suitable for senior stakeholders and decision-makers.

- Convert complex problems into clear drivers, actionable insights, and welldefined recommendations.

- Build consensus across diverse teams, negotiate scope and priorities, and drive adoption of forecasting outputs and strategic decisions.

- Manage teams performance and appraisal processes end-to-end.